ETH will never rise again. The claim is bold, but the theory is simple. The higher the ETH price, the more incentives for ICO raisers to jump into issue new ICOs. These engineers don’t need to sit on ETHs to bet on their rise in value. Whenever they need money, they can simply launch a new ICO, collect all the ETH they can, and sell them for cash. Their sellings will be a constant downward pressure to Ether price, until Ether drops to a value where the ICO raisers have no more incentives to issue any more ICOs.
There are two ways to break this. The first is for Ether investors to curb their greed, and stop falling into the traps of these ICOs. This, however is impossible. Because if the investors are so rational as to not to invest in ICO, they would refrain from investing in ETH in the first place. Most ETH investors don’t care about the technology or fundamental values (which there is none other than confidence, more on this later), and bet on the chance of turning rich quick. They are hungry for money and often has peer pressures, which arises whenever they discover another one of their friends become a crypto-millionaire.
Another way is to have a SEC-styled regulatory body to step in and regulate the new ICOs. This, again, violates the whole principle of cryptocurrency, which precisely seeks to avoid any sort of regulation.
Currency is ultimately a vote of confidence. The confidence to paper currency rests with the government that prints them. The confidence to the cryptocurrency rests in its future promises as a new medium of transactions. But for now, the investors’ confidence rests in that there is always a ‘greater fool’ (as in the person who’s the last to pay a higher price than everyone to buy the coins). ICO is precisely the demise to any type of confidence. With the ICO raisers selling, all ETH investors become the greater fools.
The future of ETH is gloom. I pity another great technology crumbled under the greed of the few.